Mumps surveillance in England and Wales supports introduction of two dose vaccination schedule.

Sentinel surveillance in general practice and laboratory reports to the PHLS Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre show that the incidence of mumps has fallen to very low levels since vaccination against measles, mumps, and rubella was introduced in 1988. Hospital admissions for mumps show a 92% decline compared with the prevaccination era, to a rate of 0.2 per 100,000 population per year. Serological surveillance has shown an increase in the proportion of school age children who have no detectable antibody to mumps, which is consistent with the reduction in mumps virus transmission. The proportion of children aged 11 to 15 years with no detectable antibody is expected to peak at 19% in 1997. Mathematical models suggest that this increase in susceptibility is unlikely to allow a large resurgence of mumps in the short term but that school outbreaks may become more common. Outbreaks in universities and military establishments are possible in the medium term. Analysis of efficacy data for mumps vaccine indicates that mumps is unlikely to be eliminated with a single dose of vaccine at current coverage rates. A second dose of vaccine, which is now being offered to preschool children, will reduce morbidity and should eventually eliminate mumps if coverage is high enough.