Borrowing strength from external trials in a meta-analysis.

There exists a variety of situations in which a random effects meta-analysis might be undertaken using a small number of clinical trials. A problem associated with small meta-analyses is estimating the heterogeneity between trials. To overcome this problem, information from other related studies may be incorporated into the meta-analysis. A Bayesian approach to this problem is presented using data from previous meta-analyses in the same therapeutic area to formulate a prior distribution for the heterogeneity. The treatment difference parameters are given non-informative priors. Further, related trials which compare one or other of the treatments of interest with a common third treatment are included in the model to improve inference on both the heterogeneity and the treatment difference. Two approaches to estimating relative efficacy are considered, namely a general parametric approach and a method explicit to binary data. The methodology is illustrated using data from 26 clinical trials which investigate the prevention of cirrhosis using beta-blockers and sclerotherapy. Both sources of external information lead to more precise posterior distributions for all parameters, in particular that representing heterogeneity.