[Development of dementia to the year 2050. Model calculations for Germany with special reference to future mortality progress].

On the basis of existing age structures of the demented, a demographic-epidemiological model (DEPOP) is used to project the number of demented to the year 2050 in Germany. In particular a future progress in survivorship of the oldest is assumed in the simulation run in continuation of the already visible path of demographic aging. Taking future mortality reductions into calculation the total number of the demented population will increase at least threefold. Together with the stagnation or decline of the total population, this signifies a considerable increase in the relative importance dementia results.