Development of radiographic damage during the first 5-6 yr of rheumatoid arthritis. A prospective follow-up study of a Swedish cohort.

The objective of this study was to describe the development of radiographic damage in patients with RA and to search for predictors of radiographic progression over 5 yr. One hundred and thirteen patients, 75 female and 38 male, mean age 53 yr, with definite RA and mean disease duration of 11.4 months, were followed prospectively for 5 yr at an out-patient clinic. Radiographs of the hands and feet were performed annually, and evaluated according to Larsen. The predictive value of demographic, clinical and laboratory variables at study start was evaluated. A stepwise logistic regression model was applied. We found that radiological joint damage occurred early and was significantly progressive during the 5 study years. The rate of progression was most prominent during the first 2 yr. At study start, 53% of the patients had no detectable erosions, but only 11% remained non-erosive. Twenty-six per cent of the patients with the initial presence of erosions did not progress substantially and needed no aggressive therapy. High joint damage progression during the first year, female gender and high baseline ESR could predict 57% of the patients with high total radiographic progression. Age, disease duration, rheumatoid factor, genetic factors, active joint count and the presence of erosions at study start had no predictive value.