Prediction of attrition from day hospital treatment in lower socioeconomic cocaine-dependent men.

This study attempted to identify predictors of completion of a 27 h/week 4-week day hospital program for cocaine dependence. The research subjects were 95 lower socioeconomic, primarily African American male veterans. Of a wide range of predictor variables available at baseline, including sociodemographic and historical information, Addiction Severity Index data, psychiatric diagnoses, SCL-90 measures, and measures of craving and familial alcoholism, only the cocaine urine toxicology result and self report of days of cocaine use in the past 30 days (log transformed) were significant predictors. The urine toxicology result was the more powerful predictor with 73 percent with a negative urine completing treatment, as contrasted with 36 percent with a positive urine. Three additional measures obtained at the end of treatment week 1 further increased ability to predict treatment completion/attrition. Two of these measures were based on counsellor ratings and one was based on the patient's report of psychiatric treatment services received during the first treatment week. Thus, patients at high risk for dropout can be identified fairly early. Whether treatments can be adapted to retain such patients is an important question for the field.