A population-based exposure model for benzene.

A model of daily-average inhalation exposures and total-absorbed doses of benzene to members of large populations was developed as part of a series of multimedia exposure and absorbed dose models. The benzene exposure and dose model is based upon probabilistic rather than sequential simulation of time-activity patterns, a simpler approach to modeling personal benzene exposures than other existing models. An important innovation of the benzene model is the incorporation of an anthropometric module for generating correlated exposure factors used to estimate absorbed doses occurring from inhalation, ingestion, and dermal absorption of benzene. A preliminary validation exercise indicates that the benzene model produces reasonable estimates of the distribution of benzene personal air concentrations expected for a large population. Uncertainty about specific percentiles of the predicted distributions of personal air concentrations was found to be dominated by uncertainty about microenvironmental benzene concentrations rather than time-activity patterns, and uncertainty about total absorbed doses was dominated by a lack of knowledge about the true absorption coefficient for benzene in the lung rather than knowledge gaps about microenvironmental concentrations or intake rates. The results of this modeling effort have implications for environmental control decisions, including evaluation of source control options, characterization of population and individual risk, and allocation of resources for future studies.