Time-series analysis of seasonal changes of the O inversion polymorphism of Drosophila subobscura.

We have studied seasonal variation (spring, early summer, last summer and autumn) of inversion polymorphisms of the O chromosome of Drosophila subobscura in a natural population over 15 years. The length of the study allowed us to investigate the temporal behavior (short-term seasonal changes and long-term directional trends) of the O arrangements by the powerful statistical method of time series analysis. It is shown that the O inversion polymorphisms varied on two different time scales: short-term seasonal changes repeated over the years superimposed on long-term directional trends. All the common arrangements (O3+4+7, Osr, O3+4+8) showed significant cyclic seasonal changes, and all but one of these arrangements (O3+4+7) showed significant long-term trends. Moreover, the degree of seasonality was different for different arrangements. Thus, O3+4+7 and OST showed the highest seasonality, which accounted for approximately 61 and 47% of their total variances, respectively. The seasonal changes in the frequencies of chromosome arrangements were significantly associated with the seasonal variation of the climate (temperature, rainfall, humidity and insolation). In particular, O3+4+7 and OST, the arrangements with the greatest seasonal component, showed the strongest association with all climatic factors investigated, especially to the seasonal changes of extreme temperature and humidity.