Parameters of prognostic relevance to the patency of vascular access in hemodialysis patients.

The objectives of this study were to evaluate whether age, sex, underlying renal disease, or the performing surgeon is of prognostic relevance to the patency of the vascular access. In a routine clinical setting, 139 first and 144 further fistula operations were done in 139 patients during 5 yr and were analyzed in retrospect. Within a group of 108 patients with first Cimino-Brescia fistulae, Cox multivariate regression analysis revealed the surgeon to be the only determinant with a continuous, significant effect on fistula patency throughout the observation period (P(out) < 0.1). The patency rates of the seven surgeons at 1, 2, and 3 yr differed from 34 to 69, 13 to 62, and 13 to 62%, respectively. Hazard ratios among the surgeons varied from 0.65 to 2.21. Additionally, age (P < 0.004) and diabetes mellitus (P < 0.02) were disclosed to be significant risk factors for impaired patency, but later in the course of disease (time dependent). Sex had no influence. After the failure of the first fistula, revisions of or new Cimino-Brescia fistulae (N = 56) were superior to polytetrafluoroethylene grafts (N = 61). The mean patency of the former amounted to 320 +/- 377 versus 156 +/- 281 days in polytetrafluoroethylene grafts (P < 0.05). It was concluded that increasing age and diabetes mellitus are time-dependent risk factors for the shortened patency of arteriovenous fistulae. The operating surgeon, however, seems to be the major determinant for the continuous patency of Cimino-Brescia fistulae.