OBJECTIVE: To estimate the costs and effects of preventive treatment with captopril compared with the current treatment policy in patients with asymptomatic left ventricular dysfunction after a myocardial infarction. METHODS: Estimates of effects are based on the results of the SAVE trial. Costs are estimated on the basis of current treatment patterns in four Dutch hospitals. All knowledge is incorporated in a mathematical model extrapolating the SAVE results to 20 years. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Captopril treatment is expected to increase survival at certain costs. The average additional costs per patient are estimated at DF1 2,491 in 4 years and at DF1 8,723 in 20 years of treatment. Costs per additional survivor after 4 years are estimated at DF1 69,126. After extrapolation of the results of the SAVE trial to 20 years, costs per life-year gained can be estimated at DF1 15,799. From univariate sensitivity analysis it appears that the results are highly sensitive for the costs of treatment with captopril and the occurrence and prevention of clinical heart failure. Varying all estimates randomly between upper and lower limits-in 5,000 simulations-an estimate of costs per life-year gained of DF1 15,729 is made for 20 years of treatment, with 95% of all estimates between DF10 and DF1 50, 000. On a national level, undiscounted costs are expected to increase up to approximately DF1 42 million annually during the first 40 years after introduction of the preventative strategy.
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the costs and effects of preventive treatment with captopril compared with the current treatment policy in patients with asymptomatic left ventricular dysfunction after a myocardial infarction. METHODS: Estimates of effects are based on the results of the SAVE trial. Costs are estimated on the basis of current treatment patterns in four Dutch hospitals. All knowledge is incorporated in a mathematical model extrapolating the SAVE results to 20 years. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS:Captopril treatment is expected to increase survival at certain costs. The average additional costs per patient are estimated at DF1 2,491 in 4 years and at DF1 8,723 in 20 years of treatment. Costs per additional survivor after 4 years are estimated at DF1 69,126. After extrapolation of the results of the SAVE trial to 20 years, costs per life-year gained can be estimated at DF1 15,799. From univariate sensitivity analysis it appears that the results are highly sensitive for the costs of treatment with captopril and the occurrence and prevention of clinical heart failure. Varying all estimates randomly between upper and lower limits-in 5,000 simulations-an estimate of costs per life-year gained of DF1 15,729 is made for 20 years of treatment, with 95% of all estimates between DF10 and DF1 50, 000. On a national level, undiscounted costs are expected to increase up to approximately DF1 42 million annually during the first 40 years after introduction of the preventative strategy.