Ten years after Chernobyl.

This review focuses on current findings on the health consequences of the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in 1986. Acute radiation damage caused by exposure to high doses of ionizing radiation involved a few hundred people, apparently with fewer than 100 deaths within the first few months. Epidemiologically detectable increases in congenital abnormalities have not been reported thus far, with the possible exception of Down's syndrome. Owing to the long latency period of radiation-induced cancer, discernible increases in cancer incidence and mortality are not yet expected for most tumour types, especially among adults. However, dramatic increases in the number of childhood thyroid cancers have already been observed in Belarus and Ukraine and the Bryansk regions of Russia. The increase has been over 100-fold in some areas with heavy contamination. From the viewpoint of overall public health, the outlook of direct health effects of the Chernobyl accident are likely to be severe only among some limited subgroups, such as young children exposed to high levels of fallout nuclides. In absolute terms, the global number of Chernobyl-associated cancer cases can be estimated to be tens of thousands, but only a small fraction of these is likely to be discernible epidemiologically.