The clinically negative neck in patients with early oral cavity carcinoma: a decision-analysis approach to management.

Despite improvements in both diagnostic and therapeutic techniques in recent decades, the prognosis for oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma has not improved. Patients presenting with overt regional metastases necessarily undergo therapeutic intervention directed to both the primary site and the neck. However, controversy persists regarding the best management for patients without clinical evidence of nodal disease. Would these patients best be managed with elective treatment of the neck, with no neck treatment unless overt nodal metastases are detected, or would some diagnostic test be beneficial in determining which patients are at highest risk of having occult nodal disease and, therefore, most likely to benefit from elective treatment? We performed a decision analysis to address this question. Baseline probability assumptions were made based on the evidence available in the literature for the parameters of interest. A decision tree was constructed and analyzed. In the final analysis, two options, elective functional neck dissection for all patients and a supraomohyoid neck dissection, were equally beneficial and were significantly better than the remaining options tested. Either of these surgical treatment strategies shifted the survival distribution curve significantly to the right.