Contributions of the proximate determinants to fertility change in Botswana.

This study uses Bongaarts' model to examine the relative contributions of three proximate determinants (non-marriage, contraceptive use and postpartum infecundability) to fertility change using data from the 1984 and 1988 Botswana Family and Health Surveys. Breast-feeding is shown to be the most important proximate determinant of fertility, followed by contraceptive use, and finally non-marriage, both in 1984 and 1988. However, contraceptive use increased between 1984 and 1988, leading to fertility decline over this period. Marriage is the least important proximate determinant of fertility, probably due to the high prevalence of premarital childbearing. Other factors such as induced abortion could have played a major role in the fertility decline but their effect could not be estimated due to lack of accurate data.