Time trends in lung-cancer mortality rates among men in Lithuania, 1965-1994.

This study examines time trends in lung-cancer mortality rates among men in Lithuania during the period 1965-1994. Age-standardized mortality rates increased from 32.5 per 100,000 in 1964-1969 to 62.9 per 100,000 in 1990-1994. Regression analysis indicates that net drift (sum of cohort and period slopes) was positive. Cohort effect was dominant in the trend observed. Mortality in cohorts born before 1945 showed an increase. In younger generations, born after 1945, the risk declined in each subsequent cohort. Higher prevalence of cigarettes with filters and lower tar content of cigarettes may be of importance. This analysis suggests that mortality will rise until cohorts born around 1950 reach middle age or old age. After that some stabilization can be expected if other conditions remain unchanged and previous trends continue.