Prospects for elimination of leprosy in India by 2000 AD.

Data regarding the trends of new-case detection rates of leprosy for India as a whole, for the State of Andhra Pradesh, and for Srikakulam district in Andhra Pradesh were generated and projected up to 2000 AD. The prevalence rate by 2000 AD was worked out based on these new -case detection rates. The projections show that at the current slowly declining trend of new-case detection, with 20% MB cases among the newly detected cases and the current mean duration of treatment, the elimination goal of leprosy by 2000 AD, could possibly be achieved at Srikakulam district level only, where the MDT project has been under implementation for over ten years, but not at the State or country levels. The achievement of elimination goal should be possible in other geographic units also if the duration of disease could be shortened to one month or less, for both paucibacillary and multibacillary types of leprosy.