Benefit-cost analysis of the national pseudorabies virus eradication program.

An epidemiologic model of pseudorabies virus (PRV) in swine was developed. This model was used to project future herd-to-herd disease transmission under alternative eradication or control programs over 20 years (1993 to 2012). With current PRV eradication program funding, it was projected that prevalence would be 23% in higher-risk states in the United States, 10% in moderate-risk states, and 1% in lower-risk states. Increased funding for the PRV eradication program was projected to reduce PRV prevalence substantially. Productivity and economic impacts of PRV also were estimated for the average size farrow-to-finish operation. These impacts included mortality for preweaning, nursery, growing/finishing, and breeding hogs; market weights and number of market hogs sold; farrowing rates, number of live pigs per litter, and number of litters per sow-year. Profitability was estimated to be $6/cwt less for PRV-infected herds than for uninfected herds. Aggregate effects of PRV eradication programs were estimated by use of economic welfare analysis. For all PRV eradication program alternatives analyzed, consumers were the major beneficiaries of the program because of reduced prices and increased consumption of pork. Estimates of the value of economic welfare impacts under the current program with an assumed parallel supply-curve shift were determined: consumers gained $336.5 million; producers gained $35.9 million; government expenditures were $197.1 million; and the benefit/cost ratio of the program was 1.89. Economic welfare measures were projected to increase substantially with increased PRV eradication program funding. Economic welfare measures also were estimated under other assumptions.