Potential consequences from possible changes to Nordic retail alcohol monopolies resulting from European Union membership.

This paper projects the consequences of modifying or eliminating the current national alcohol retail monopolies in Sweden, Norway and Finland as a possible result of those countries' membership in the European Union (EU). First, the authors project absolute alcohol consumption in each country based on different possible changes in alcohol price and availability. Then they predict the future levels of alcohol-related problems likely to result from increased per capita alcohol consumption (Sweden and Norway only). All of the scenarios examined in this paper are expected to lead to increases in per capita alcohol consumption. The smallest increase in consumption would result from a partial elimination of the current monopoly and a modest reduction in alcohol prices. In that case, projected per capita consumption in Sweden for inhabitants 15 years and older would rise from 6.3 to 9.3 litres; in Norway, from 4.7 to 6.7 litres; and in Finland, from 8.4 to 11.1 litres. The greatest projected increase in consumption would result from a complete elimination of the state monopolies such that all beer, wine and spirits were sold in food shops, grocery stores and gasoline stations, along with a substantial drop in alcohol prices as a result of private competition within each country and increased cross-border alcohol purchases. That scenario would result in projected per capita consumption of 12.7 litres in Sweden, 11.1 litres in Norway and 13.7 litres in Finland. The authors project that a 1-litre increase in consumption would result in a 9.5% increase in total alcohol-related mortality in Sweden and a 9.7% increase in Norway. Further, alcohol-related assaults would increase by 9% in Sweden and 9.6% in Norway. A 5-litre increase in consumption would result in a 62% increase in alcohol-related mortality in Sweden and a 60% increase in Norway, and a 57% increase in alcohol-involved assaults in both countries.