Segregation analysis of breast cancer in a population-based sample of postmenopausal probands: The Iowa Women's Health Study.

Inheritance of a major susceptibility gene for breast cancer has been primarily investigated in families with early-onset disease. However, familial clustering of late-onset breast cancer is well documented, and genetic factors may also be relevant. In the Iowa Women's Health Study, we evaluated evidence for a major gene after allowing for measured environmental risk factors. Two hundred sixty-five incident breast cancer probands were identified from a prospective cohort study of 41,837 women aged 55 to 69 years at baseline in 1986. A pedigree development form was mailed to the probands to ascertain all first-degree female relatives. A questionnaire and body measurement protocol were mailed to identified living relatives or surrogates. Segregation analyses were conducted on a total of 1,145 women in 251 families using regressive models as implemented in S.A.G.E. Mendelian codominant inheritance of an allele that produced an earlier-age-at-onset provided the best fit to the data. Incorporation of measured environmental risk factors as covariates yielded no significant improvements in the likelihoods. Approximately 50% of this population could be expected to carry a late-onset breast cancer susceptibility gene, and 23% of the population is susceptible because of the environment in which they live. Homozygous gene carriers are predicted to have a mean age-at-onset of 48 years, over 20 years earlier than heterozygotes; few cases would be expected among non-gene carriers. In conclusion, the transmission pattern of late-onset breast cancer may be determined by a common susceptibility gene.