Prognostic significance from 10-year follow-up of a qualitatively normal planar exercise thallium test in suspected coronary artery disease.

A normal exercise thallium-201 scintigram has been shown to confer an excellent prognosis over a 1- to 4-year follow-up period. However, progression of coronary disease could result in cardiovascular mortality with increasing time. Therefore, the vital status of 309 patients with normal stress thallium myocardial imaging was determined after an average of 10.3 years. Deaths were classified as cardiac or noncardiac. Statistical analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier survival curves. Standardized mortality ratios were calculated and compared with those of an age- and sex-matched general population. Follow-up was complete in 288 patients (93%). Of 18 deaths, only 3 were cardiac; the remaining 15 were mainly secondary to cancer. Thus, cardiac mortality was 1% and total mortality 6.3% at 10 years. In addition, both all-cause and cardiac mortality rates were significantly less than would be expected in an age- and sex-adjusted segment of the general population. Thus, normal exercise thallium scintigraphy retains its high negative predictive value for death < or = 10 years after initial testing. This supports the use of stress thallium imaging to predict which patients with suspected coronary artery disease are at low risk for cardiac death and thus do not need invasive testing.