Modelling the interactions between alcohol, crime and the criminal justice system.

Similarities in the trends of the number of offences and the level of alcohol consumption are often used as evidence as a link between alcohol and many forms of criminal activity. However, such crude correlations may be misleading as they neither take account of other factors that might be important, not assist the understanding of the causal links between alcohol and crime. In this paper, the role that economic models may play in furthering the understanding of the potential links between alcohol and crime are explored. A complete model is presented which allows for complex interactions between alcohol, crime and the criminal justice system. Results from testing this model with time series data (1960-88) for England and Wales for different types of crime are discussed in detail. Data defined by standard regions and for the years 1980 to 1988 were also compiled and a summary of the results discussed. The argument that alcohol consumption may be one of the determinants of a wide range of crimes receives some support and is also found that alcohol consumption may affect the probability of detection for some types of crime.