OBJECTIVE: To estimate the seroincidence of HIV-1 infection in the general adult population of Kigali, Rwanda. DESIGN: Repeated standardized cross-sectional studies. SETTING: Two urban prenatal clinics. PATIENTS: A total of 4486 consecutive pregnant women consulting in 1989 and 1990. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of HIV-1 antibodies. RESULTS: HIV seropositivity increased by 3-5% annually over this period, indicating that it has not reached a plateau in this sentinel population. The percentage infection rates, calculated using two complementary methods, were 26.2-30.7% in 1990. Extrapolating these results to the general population of Kigali, we estimate that 2300-3800 new infections in young women and 3600-6100 new infections in young men occur annually among the total population of 350,000 in Kigali. CONCLUSIONS: A new HIV infection occurred in an adult every 50-90 min, on average, in Kigali during 1989-1990, while every 6-7 h a baby with maternally acquired HIV infection was born. Our HIV surveillance system, which is based on prenatal sentinel posts, is a useful tool for monitoring the progression of the HIV epidemic in Kigali.
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the seroincidence of HIV-1 infection in the general adult population of Kigali, Rwanda. DESIGN: Repeated standardized cross-sectional studies. SETTING: Two urban prenatal clinics. PATIENTS: A total of 4486 consecutive pregnant women consulting in 1989 and 1990. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of HIV-1 antibodies. RESULTS: HIV seropositivity increased by 3-5% annually over this period, indicating that it has not reached a plateau in this sentinel population. The percentage infection rates, calculated using two complementary methods, were 26.2-30.7% in 1990. Extrapolating these results to the general population of Kigali, we estimate that 2300-3800 new infections in young women and 3600-6100 new infections in young men occur annually among the total population of 350,000 in Kigali. CONCLUSIONS: A new HIV infection occurred in an adult every 50-90 min, on average, in Kigali during 1989-1990, while every 6-7 h a baby with maternally acquired HIV infection was born. Our HIV surveillance system, which is based on prenatal sentinel posts, is a useful tool for monitoring the progression of the HIV epidemic in Kigali.
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Keywords:
Africa; Africa South Of The Sahara; Clinical Research; Cross Sectional Analysis; Demographic Factors; Developing Countries; Diseases; Eastern Africa; Epidemics; Estimation Technics; French Speaking Africa; Hiv Infections; Incidence; Measurement; Population; Population Characteristics; Pregnant Women; Research Methodology; Rwanda; Urban Population; Viral Diseases