OBJECTIVE: To characterize the course of early scleroderma and to delineate prognostic factors present within 1 year of disease onset that might identify patients at high risk. DESIGN: Inception cohort study. SETTING: Ten university-based rheumatology clinics participating in the Cooperative Systematic Studies of Rheumatic Diseases Program. PATIENTS: Forty-eight patients who had had scleroderma for less than 1 year. MEASUREMENTS: Fifteen patients with early scleroderma who died were compared with those still living during the initial study period (1982 to 1992). Kaplan-Meier survival estimation and Cox proportional hazards analysis were used to analyze baseline variables for their ability to predict survival duration. RESULTS: Eight of 15 deaths were due to cardiac or pulmonary system failure. The estimated 5-year survival rate was 68%. Baseline factors that were the most predictive of a poor outcome included the presence of abnormal cardiopulmonary signs and abnormal urine sediment (pyuria, hematuria). CONCLUSION: Evidence of early cardiopulmonary disease, renal disease, inflammation, or immune activation may identify a subset of patients with scleroderma who will experience rapidly progressive disease and early death.
OBJECTIVE: To characterize the course of early scleroderma and to delineate prognostic factors present within 1 year of disease onset that might identify patients at high risk. DESIGN: Inception cohort study. SETTING: Ten university-based rheumatology clinics participating in the Cooperative Systematic Studies of Rheumatic Diseases Program. PATIENTS: Forty-eight patients who had had scleroderma for less than 1 year. MEASUREMENTS: Fifteen patients with early scleroderma who died were compared with those still living during the initial study period (1982 to 1992). Kaplan-Meier survival estimation and Cox proportional hazards analysis were used to analyze baseline variables for their ability to predict survival duration. RESULTS: Eight of 15 deaths were due to cardiac or pulmonary system failure. The estimated 5-year survival rate was 68%. Baseline factors that were the most predictive of a poor outcome included the presence of abnormal cardiopulmonary signs and abnormal urine sediment (pyuria, hematuria). CONCLUSION: Evidence of early cardiopulmonary disease, renal disease, inflammation, or immune activation may identify a subset of patients with scleroderma who will experience rapidly progressive disease and early death.
Authors: D Farge; J Passweg; J M van Laar; Z Marjanovic; C Besenthal; J Finke; H H Peter; F C Breedveld; W E Fibbe; C Black; C Denton; I Koetter; F Locatelli; A Martini; A V N Schattenberg; F van den Hoogen; L van de Putte; F Lanza; R Arnold; P A Bacon; S Bingham; F Ciceri; B Didier; J L Diez-Martin; P Emery; W Feremans; B Hertenstein; F Hiepe; R Luosujärvi; A Leon Lara; A Marmont; A M Martinez; H Pascual Cascon; C Bocelli-Tyndall; E Gluckman; A Gratwohl; A Tyndall Journal: Ann Rheum Dis Date: 2004-08 Impact factor: 19.103