Caries risk assessment by a cross-sectional discrimination model.

Although the prevalence of dental caries is continuing to decline, it still affects a majority of the US population and can be a serious problem for those afflicted. The objective of this project was to develop and perfect a model for assessment of risk of dental caries onset in children. In the first study, reported herein, a set of clinical, microbiological, biochemical, and socio-demographic variables was identified that distinguished, with an acceptable level of sensitivity and specificity, between children who had no previous caries experience and children who had high caries levels. A total of 313 children--age 12-15 years, 140 from a fluoridated community and 173 from a fluoride-deficient community--was selected on the basis of previous caries experience, either zero DMFS or high DMFS (> or = 6 in the fluoridated or > or = 8 in the fluoride-deficient community). Clinical exams for DMFS, dental fluorosis, and plaque were conducted. Stimulated whole saliva was collected for analysis of mutans streptococci, lactobacilli, total viable flora, and fluoride concentration. A questionnaire was used for collection of demographic data as well as information on prior fluoride exposure, dietary habits, and oral hygiene practices. By means of discriminant analyses, with use of seven key clinical and laboratory variables, it was possible for zero-DMFS subjects to e classified correctly (specificity) in 77.6% of cases in the fluoridated community and in 86.1% of cases in the fluoride-deficient community. High-caries subjects were classified as such (sensitivity) in 79.3% and 88.1% of cases, respectively.