Results of fludarabine and prednisone therapy in 264 patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia with multivariate analysis-derived prognostic model for response to treatment.

Two hundred sixty-four patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia were treated with fludarabine 30 mg/m2 intravenously for 30 minutes each day for 5 days and with prednisone 30 mg/m2 orally each day for 5 days. Courses were repeated monthly. Of the 264 patients. 125 patients (47%) had Rai stage III-IV disease; 169 patients (64%) were previously treated with a median of 3 prior regimens; and 138 of them (82%) were refractory to therapy with alkylating agents. The overall response (OR) and complete response (CR) rates in the 169 previously-treated patients were 52% and 37%; these were 74% and 63%, respectively, in Rai stage O-II patients and declined to 64% and 46%, respectively, in Rai III-IV disease. Among the previously untreated patients, the OR and CR rates were 79% and 63%, these being 85% and 70%, respectively, in Rai O-II patients, and declining to 64% and 46%, respectively, in Rai III-IV disease. The incidence of minor infections or fever of unknown origin was similar in all patient groups and occurred in 22% of courses. The incidence of sepsis and/or pneumonia was significantly correlated with the extent of prior therapy and with Rai stage, and ranged from 3% of courses in the previously untreated Rai O-II patients, to 13% of courses in the previously treated Rai III-IV patients. Listeria sepsis or Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia was noted in 14 patients. With therapy, CD4 levels were uniformly depressed from a median 1,015/microL pretreatment to a median 159/microL after 3 months of fludarabine therapy. Median time to progression in previously treated patients was 22 months. In previously untreated patients, median time to progression was 30 months for patients who achieved a partial remission and has not been reached in patients who achieved a CR with a median follow-up of 2 years. The median survival was 18 months for previously treated patients and has not been reached for previously untreated patients. Response rates in previously treated and untreated patients, as well as infection rates, were identical to those seen in 110 patients treated with the same dose schedule of fludarabine alone. Logistic regression analysis selected 4 factors to be significantly associated with worse response: Rai III-IV stage disease, prior therapy, older age, and low albumin levels. The regression equation was used to derive a probability of response based on the 4 characteristics. When the model was applied to the same population, patients could be divided into 4 prognostic groups with different outcomes.