Climate, satellite imagery and the seasonal abundance of the tick Rhipicephalus appendiculatus in southern Africa: a new perspective.

Recent predictive models for the distribution of the African tick Rhipicephalus appendiculatus Neumann, based on the computer packages CLIMEX and BIOCLIM and data derived from meteorological satellites, and for the seasonal dynamics of the same tick using the computer simulation models ECFXPERT and T3HOST, all have their limitations. Statistical analysis of the relationships between the seasonal abundance of all three life stages of this tick and climatic and satellite-derived data from five sites in southern Africa, taken from the literature, supports a new perspective that it is the timing of the questing activity of the desiccation-vulnerable larvae that determines the pattern of the tick's seasonal dynamics. The timing of the activity of nymphs and adults is determined by temperature-dependent development rates plus the delaying phenomenon of photoperiod-sensitive diapause, the timing and duration of which have evolved to achieve maximum generation survival by ensuring the occurrence of eggs and larvae during periods of optimal climatic conditions. The most important environmental factor appears to be night-time minimum temperature, determining condensation and saturation deficit and thus the tick's ability to replenish moisture lost during the daytime and so to survive while questing for hosts. It is the larvae whose numbers are correlated most closely with these factors, consistent with earlier experimental results showing larvae to be most susceptible to desiccating conditions. There is a statistical linkage between larval tick numbers and satellite imagery, arising from the correlation between larval numbers and minimum temperature and saturation deficit conditions, and in turn the relationship between these climatic conditions and the subsequent vegetational changes monitored by the satellites. Moisture availability to larvae is likely to be the critical factor throughout the geographical range of R. appendiculatus, but the precise combination of climatic conditions that optimize moisture availability and questing tick survival can be expected to vary geographically. The relationships between ticks, temperatures and satellite data in parts of equatorial Africa have yet to be established. These correlative patterns highlight both the critical life stage and environmental factors when trying to understand temporal, and ultimately spatial, variations in tick abundance.