Predicting outcomes of nursing home residents: death and discharge home.

The purpose of this study was to document prevalence, identify leading indicators, and develop and assess prediction models for nursing home resident outcomes (death, discharge home). New residents (N = 647) in eight nursing homes were evaluated on admission and 3 and 6 months later. Predictor variables tested included 14 health status variables, 5 demographic variables, and 6 other resident and nursing home variables. A cancer diagnosis was the most important risk factor for death at 3 months (OR = 8.0) and 6 months (OR = 10.8). A first nursing home admission was the most important risk factor for discharge to home at 3 months (OR = 9.5) and 6 months (OR = 13.9). Not having a dementia diagnosis was the second most important risk factor for discharge to home at 3 months (OR = 5.8) and 6 months (OR = 4.2). All prediction models demonstrated useful potential for clinical application.