Mortality-discriminating power of some nutritional, sociodemographic, and diarrheal disease indices.

This study compared the predictive power of selected nutritional (anthropometric), socioeconomic, and diarrheal disease morbidity variables for subsequent childhood mortality over a 1-year period. The data consisted of observations of approximately 1,900 children aged 6-36 months obtained from a longitudinal demographic surveillance system located in a rural area of Bangladesh in 1988-1990. The results suggested that weight-for-age (%) was the best predictor of subsequent mortality over a 1-year period, followed by weight velocity (monthly weight gain or loss in grams). Standardization of weight velocity by the US National Center for Health Statistics standard did not improve the mortality-discriminating power of this variable. Reported diarrheal morbidity was also a useful criterion for predicting mortality. Neither maternal education nor sex of the child had significant mortality-discriminating power.