Dynamic life table model for Aedes aegypti (diptera: Culicidae): simulation results and validation.

The container-inhabiting mosquito simulation model (CIMSiM) is a weather-driven, dynamic life table simulation model of Aedes aegypti (L.) and similar nondiapausing Aedes mosquitoes that inhabit artificial and natural containers. This paper presents a validation of CIMSiM simulating Ae. aegypti using several independent series of data that were not used in model development. Validation data sets include laboratory work designed to elucidate the role of diet on fecundity and rates of larval development and survival. Comparisons are made with four field studies conducted in Bangkok, Thailand, on seasonal changes in population dynamics and with a field study in New Orleans, LA, on larval habitat. Finally, predicted ovipositional activity of Ae. aegypti in seven cities in the southeastern United States for the period 1981-1985 is compared with a data set developed by the U.S. Public Health Service. On the basis of these comparisons, we believe that, for stated design goals, CIMSiM adequately simulates the population dynamics of Ae. aegypti in response to specific information on weather and immature habitat. We anticipate that it will be useful in simulation studies concerning the development and optimization of control strategies and that, with further field validation, can provide entomological inputs for a dengue virus transmission model.