Alcohol expectancies, problem drinking, and adverse health consequences.

This study evaluated a measure of positive and negative expected effects of alcohol and their subjective evaluation in the identification of college freshmen at high risk for problem drinking and associated morbidities. It was hypothesized that greater expectations of positive outcomes and fewer negative evaluations of negative outcomes would be associated with reports of heavier drinking and more alcohol-related health problems. College freshmen (n = 328) completed a standardized measure of expectations and subjective evaluations of positive and negative outcomes associated with drinking, and a questionnaire assessing drinking patterns and common alcohol-related health problems. Fifty-two percent of students were male and the mean age was 17.9 years (SD = 0.5). Students' expectations of positive outcomes and their subjective evaluations of both positive and negative outcomes from drinking were significantly correlated with drinking and alcohol-related health problems indices (p < 0.001). Gender, expectation of positive outcomes, and evaluation of negative outcomes explained 29% of the variance in drinking and 15% of the variance in alcohol-related health problems indices. Heavier-drinking students and those reporting more health problems expected more positive effects on their sociability and sexuality (p < 0.03) and were less concerned about cognitive and behavioral impairment as a result of drinking (p < 0.001). Students with more health problems were less concerned that drinking would lead to risk-taking or aggressive behavior (p < 0.003). Positive and negative outcome expectancies and their subjective evaluations accounted for a significant portion of the variability in drinking and alcohol-related health problems.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)