U.S. health manpower policy: will the benefits justify the costs?

The United States is now training and importing new physicians at a rate that will increase the ratio of physicians-to-population by nearly 50 percent over the next 25 years. Similar increases in the supply of other health manpower will also result from current enrollment levels. The added costs associated with these increased health-manpower-to-population ratios will equivalent to diverting another 4 percent of more of GNP--roughly $50 billion annually in today's frame of reference--from other purposes into health care. But only marginal, if any, improvements in the overall health of the American people are likely to result. Therefore, current policies need to be reexamined and serious consideration given to reducing the rates at which the health manpower pool is increasing.