[Psychiatric hospitalization trends and predicted needs].

This study attempts to predict the need up to 1995 for psychiatric beds in Israel, based on the trends of psychiatric hospitalization during 1986-1990. Additional need created by the recent large waves of immigrants to Israel are taken into account. Analysis was separate for chronic in-patients, (continuous stay of 1 year or more) and for acute in-patients (stay of less than 1 year). The data were drawn from the National Psychiatric Case Register. Among acute in-patients, the admission rate of immigrants was higher than that of the veteran population, thus counterbalancing the trend to a decrease in admissions among the latter. It is assumed therefore that the present rate of 0.4 acute patients/1000 population will not change. However, an additional 300 new beds will be needed due to increase in the general population. With regard to chronic in-patients, a continuous decrease of about 50 chronic in-patients per year has been observed. Assuming 700,000 new immigrants will have arrived in Israel between 1990-1995, and that the proportion of patients admitted who remain in continuous hospitalization is larger among new immigrants than among the veteran Israeli population (10% vs. 6%), the beds expected to be vacated by chronic patients will be filled by new immigrant patients. The expected rate of chronic in-patients will nevertheless decrease from the present rate of 1.0/1000. to 0.8/1000 by 1995.