Multifactorial modeling for root caries prediction: 3-year follow-up results.

The study was part of a series aiming at the development of caries tests. The initial material (n = 104, age range 47-79 yr, mean 62 yr) was reduced to 96, who were observed for 3 yr. During the follow-up four subjects died, all due to myocardial infarction, and four refused to participate. Thorough oral examinations were conducted at the baseline, 1- and 3-yr registrations; coronal and root surface caries were registered separately according to WHO classification. The tests included salivary mutans streptococci, lactobacilli, candida/yeasts, secretion rate, buffer effect and sucrase activity, and quantitation of visible plaque. The association between prospective root caries increment and several tests was significant. Multifactorial modeling resulted in the combination of Past Root Caries Experience (OR 12.8), Lactobacilli (OR 8.6) and Candida (OR 2.8). At screening, the criterion "two or three positive tests" of these yielded acceptable accuracy (77.1) and a relative risk of 3.3.