Prognostication of nontraumatic avascular necrosis of the femoral head. Significance of location and size of the necrotic lesion.

After reviewing the radiographs of 149 hips with nontraumatic avascular necrosis of the femoral head (ANFH), a method for evaluating the prognosis in patients with ANFH in its early stages was devised. The evaluation was made primarily by classifying the radiographic features of each involved femoral head according to the location and size of its necrotic lesion. In a group of 120 hips, massive collapse occurred without exception in cases where both of the following criteria were true. First, in a standing position, the necrotic lesion involved more than the medial one third of the weight-bearing surface from the anteroposterior view. Second, from the lateral view, the lesion occupied more than 43% of the total area of the femoral head. However, in 29 hips, the extent and size of necrosis was less than the above, and no massive collapse occurred during the follow-up period of three to 15 years (average, 5.2 years). In these 29 hips, function was preserved. These data suggest that hips with a high risk for collapse can be reliably selected during the early stages of ANFH.