Incidence rates of leprosy in Karonga District, northern Malawi: patterns by age, sex, BCG status and classification.

This paper describes incidence rates by age, sex, prior BCG status and classification in Karonga District, northern Malawi. New cases (489) were identified among 83,500 individuals followed for an average of 5 years (1.12 cases per 1000 person years). Only 29 (6%) of the incident cases were multibacillary. Incidence rates generally were higher among females than males, and increased steadily with age. Although the highest incidence rates of disease were recorded among young adults without BCG scars (males 15-19; females 20-24), these peaks were less dramatic than those reported among young adults in The Philippines and Norway. In the absence of historical data and data on infection status, it is not possible to assess to what extent these peaks may reflect either greater exposure or greater susceptibility to disease among adolescents or young adults. The incidence rates of leprosy among individuals with a prior recorded BCG scar were approximately half those of individuals lacking a scar, at all ages. Since BCG had been introduced into this population only during the 1970s, this provides strong evidence for the effectiveness of BCG when given to adults. It was estimated that past vaccination of approximately 40% of the district population had reduced the overall incidence rate of leprosy by 18%, and that this impact would increase with aging of the vaccinated cohorts. A retrospective examination of the detailed records of initial examinations revealed that 62 (13%) of the incidence cases were recorded as having skin hypopigmentation or blemishes, at the site of subsequent confirmed leprosy lesions, several months or years before they were suspected of having leprosy. The nonspecificity of these lesions, some of which were probably attributable to Mycobacterium leprae infection, highlights the difficulty of diagnosing leprosy in its earliest forms.