Preliminary report on the paleodemography of the K2 and Mapungubwe populations (South Africa).

Paleodemographic studies have seldom been attempted in sub-Saharan Africa. The Mapungubwe complex of sites in northern Transvaal (A.D. 970-1200) has yielded enough skeletal material to warrant such an investigation. The skeletal collection consists of 109 individuals (97 from K2 and 12 from Mapungubwe itself). Because the sites are extensive and their complete excavation impractical, only reconstruction of the population dynamics, not the population size, was possible. There were 81 child and juvenile skeletons (below 15 years of age) and 7 male, 5 female, 4 possible male, and 4 possible female adult skeletons. Eight adult skeletons were too fragmentary to warrant even tentative sex diagnoses. Either age-specific burial practices resulting in the surplus of child skeletons, unusual child mortality, or a state of substantial natural increase must be the explanation for this age distribution. The hypothesis of the natural increase can be partly tested by using an appropriate correction to the life table. The life table corrected for r = 2.5% has a newborn life expectancy of 18.93 +/- 1.79 years and a survivorship to 15 years of 41.66% +/- 3.91. The population pyramid derived from this life table compares well with data on some third world populations observed earlier this century. The fertility rate required to maintain the natural increase under such mortality conditions is high but comparable to that of some historical populations. High positive natural increase would indicate an economically successful population.