Simulation of the economic impact of transmissible gastroenteritis on commercial pig production in Australia.

A simulation model (AUSPIG) was used to predict the effect of an increase in piglet deaths, and a reduction in growth rate and an increase in feed conversion ratio of grower pigs on the profitability of two herds representative of the Australian pig industry caused by the introduction of transmissible gastroenteritis virus (TGE) into those herds. For each herd, mortality rates for piglets under 1 week of age of 50% and 95% were assumed to represent a 'moderate' and a 'severe' outbreak, respectively. A reduction in net revenue of 70% was predicted to occur in the 6 months after a 'moderate' outbreak of TGE (100% for a 'severe' outbreak). This represents a total loss of between $260 and $330 per breeding sow in the 12 months after infection with the TGE virus. The likely financial impact of an outbreak of TGE on an Australian piggery is substantial and should be considered when addressing quarantine issues.