Prognostic validity of short-term abstinence in alcoholism.

A demonstrated period of abstinence is often viewed as a good prognostic sign in alcoholism. For example, short-term abstinence is one factor often considered important as a selection criteria for alcoholics who are being evaluated as liver transplant candidates. However, the prognostic validity of short-term abstinence is unclear. We evaluated the effects of 3 and 6 months of abstinence on readmission rates in a series of 299 alcoholics following discharge from inpatient treatment. Readmission rates were stratified using a 3-factor model of alcoholism severity. This 3-factor model defined groups with 1-year readmission rates, ranging from 15.8% to 62.7%. Short-term abstinence did not have strong effects on readmission rates for the most severe alcoholics, nor did short-term abstinence produce clinically significant reduction for readmission rates for the least severe alcoholics. We conclude that short-term abstinence has minimal effect on prognosis for alcoholics with various levels of baseline severity.