Prognostic value of initial subtype in schizophrenic disorders.

The prognostic value of the subtype diagnosis at the initial episode was investigated in 148 narrowly defined schizophrenic patients. Every initial episode was classified according to multiple criteria: DSM-III-R, ICD-10, the positive/negative dichotomy, and Schneider's first rank symptoms. Patients were followed up on average 23 years later (range 10-50 years). Different aspects of long-term outcome were evaluated (global functioning, social adjustment, negative social consequences). In 93% of the patients persisting alterations were found at the end of the observation time. The influence of the predominant clinical features at the initial episode on various aspects of long-term outcome was found to differ depending on which of the four diagnostic systems was used. The highest power for discrimination was found for the subtypes of DSM-III-R, while the presence of first rank symptoms had no prognostic value. It was found that patients with an initial paranoid or positive episode had a significantly better long-term outcome than patients initially having a disorganised/hebephrenic or catatonic episode. The frequency of negative social consequences was not influenced by the initial subtype, with the exception of permanent hospitalisation.