Breast cancer trends. Incidence, mortality, and survival.

This paper describes trends in the primary measures of breast cancer. Data on incidence and mortality are drawn from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, and those on mortality are from the National Center for Health Statistics. There has been a steady increase in the rate of breast cancer cases since 1950, with a sharp rise in the 1980s because of the increased use of mammography. Conversely, mortality since 1973 has declined by 11% for women younger than 50 (the decrease is primarily in the 70s) and increased by 6% for women aged 50 and older. There are different racial experiences in breast cancer incidence, with African-American women aged 40 and older having a lower incidence rate, and those younger than 40 having a higher one. For all ages, there is a greater likelihood of mortality (lower survival) for each case. This paper explores these trends and their implications for the future impact of this disease.