Peptic ulcer hemorrhage: factors predisposing to recurrence.

Two hundred and eighty patients with stigmata of recent or active bleeding from a peptic ulcer were followed up after endoscopic or conservative medical treatment. Of the patients 53% had no history of dyspeptic symptoms, but 17% and 10% had a history of uncomplicated ulcer or bleeding ulcer, respectively, before the index admission. After 8 years of follow-up the estimated recurrence rate was 29% (95% confidence limits, 12-47%). At recurrence 65% of the patients presented with a rebleed and 12% with a perforation. By means of a logistic regression analysis, a previous history of ulcer haemorrhage was identified as the only predictor associated with a significantly increased risk of recurrence. The recurrence rate in 253 patients presenting with a first bleed at the index admission was 23%, compared with 73% in 27 patients with a history of bleeding before the index admission (p = 0.001). The rate of recurrence was not influenced by a history of previous uncomplicated ulcer disease or dyspeptic symptoms, the severity of the index bleed, the methods of management of the index bleed, age, use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, or long-term treatment with cimetidine.