Temporal trends in migration in the Aland Islands: effects of population size and geographic distance.

Using a model developed by Relethford (1992), we assess temporal trends (1750-1949) in marital migration in the Aland Islands, Finland, in relation to both geographic distance and population size. The 200-year time period was divided into four 50-year periods. For all time periods both geographic distance and population size are important determinants of migration among 15 Lutheran parishes. The geographic distance parameter of the model decreases significantly over time, and the population size parameter fluctuates slightly but shows no significant change over time. For all time periods migration is negative density dependent, indicating that there is greater relative flow from larger to smaller subdivisions. Even though both the geographic distance and population size parameters are statistically significant, the analysis suggests that geographic distance has a greater relative effect on migration than population size. There is a clear indication of isolate breakdown during the last two time periods (1850-1899 and 1900-1949). Residual analysis indicated that the smallest parish (Sottunga) was a major outlier that showed greater exogamy (less endemicity) than expected from the model.