Predictors of carcinomatous invasion of the mandible.

The preoperative assessment of mandibular invasion by oral or oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma poses a challenge for the head and neck surgeon. A study of 64 composite resection patients was performed to determine which variables in the patient's history, physical exam, and diagnostic workup had a predictive association with carcinomatous mandibular invasion. Four postoperative variables were included in this analysis. Thirty-nine percent of the mandibular specimens demonstrated cancerous involvement. A multivariate recursive partitioning statistical analysis was performed to create a decision tree. Branching was based on the two statistically predictive variables: computed tomographic (CT) scan results and primary tumor location. The guide provides improved predictive accuracy with a 100% negative predictive value (NPV) and a 46% positive predictive value (PPV). This decision guide should help the surgeon provide accurate patient counseling, anticipate reconstructive needs, and maximize surgical oncologic effectiveness.