MZ twinning: chance or determinism? An essay in nonlinear dynamics (chaos).

Classically, researchers considered monozygotic twinning (MZT) a random phenomenon. This paper tests the hypothesis with the aid of nonlinear dynamics techniques. The latter can tell true randomness from chance-like variation. Chaos, the endpoint of the threshold state of a nonlinear deterministic system, can mimic constrained randomness. From a practical standpoint, recognizing chaos in a time series data set means that the paradigmatic multifactorial model of causation is essentially ruled out. Specifically, time series of MZ, DZ, and single maternities were analysed. First, spectral analysis was used to uncover periodicities embedded in the series. Second, a singular value decomposition was undertaken to reduce noise from the series. Third, phase space attractors were drawn up that describe the 'asymptotic' trajectory of the system at any time. Results suggested that DZ, MZ, and single maternities shared a similar 32-year periodicity. Owing to two interwoven similar periodicities, the single-maternity cycle kinetics proved to be faster than that of DZ's. The MZ series was the only one to display secondary interacting harmonics, thus eliciting a rather unusual trajectory in the bidimensional phase space. The MZ time points were not spread in a haphazard fashion; on the contrary, a fine structure was present that did not reduce to a limit cycle such as the one characterizing the DZ- or the single-maternity trajectory. It was concluded that a complex nonlinear dynamic underlies MZ twinning. Therefore, calling for extrinsic causes to account for what appears to be random variation overtime would be pointless. MZ twinning should rather be traced to a limited number of intrinsic and deterministic interacting system components. The most likely candidates are presented and discussed.