"Thucydides syndrome" reconsidered: new thoughts on the "Plague of Athens".

A recently published theory (N Engl J Med 1985;313:1027-30) argues that the famous Athenian epidemic of 430 B.C. was caused by a combination of influenza and toxin-producing staphylococci (the "Thucydides syndrome"). Although it is accepted by some medical authorities, and ostensibly supported by identification of modern cases, the theory's plausibility has not been carefully examined. The authors used an epidemiologic approach supplemented by historical and clinical observations to examine the likelihood that a "Thucydides syndrome" could have caused the Athenian epidemic. Arguing against the influenza theory are epidemiologic and clinical features of the disease, mathematical models of the spread of influenza, and empirical observations of epidemic influenza in premodern populations of known size and crowding. The authors conclude that neither influenza nor a "Thucydides syndrome" could have produced the Athenian epidemic. Epidemiologic features suggest either a zoonotic or vectorborne disease, a disease associated with an environmental source, or a respiratory infection with unusual alternative mechanisms of spread.