Physician resource planning: quest for answers.

The average annual rate of physician growth in Canada, just over 4% prior to 1989, has fallen to about 2% since 1990, approximating the average annual growth rate of the Canadian population. The growth rate is not uniform for all specialties, with surgical specialties experiencing the smallest increases. Sub-specialist growth in the past 5 y has occurred preferentially in disciplines identified as areas of need and those identified as emerging specialties. Assessment of average workloads of physicians derived from full-time equivalent measurements, reported by the National Physician Data Base, indicates increasing workloads in the specialist group, which is most marked in the surgical specialties. Among a number of factors influencing workload measures, which might explain differences noted among specialty groups, are age, gender, lifestyle choices, technology changes, physician growth rates, and saturation of the market place balancing physician availability with "demand" for services. All such factors, along with the impact of current health care reform initiatives, must be considered when forecasting and managing physician resources.