Nutritional status as a predictor of child survival: summarizing the association and quantifying its global impact.

By pooling the results from five previously published prospective studies, we have obtained estimates of the relative risks of mortality among young children 6-24 months after they had been identified as having mild-to-moderate or severe malnutrition. These risk estimates, along with global malnutrition prevalence data, were then used to calculate the total number of young-childhood deaths "attributable" to malnutrition in developing countries. Young children (6-60 months of age) with mild-to-moderate malnutrition (60-80% of the median weight-for-age of the reference population) had 2.2 times the risk of dying during the follow-up period than their better nourished counterparts (> 80% of the median reference weight-for-age). Severely malnourished young children (< 60% of the reference median weight-for-age) had 6.8 times the risk of dying during the follow-up period than better nourished children. Each year approximately 2.3 million deaths of young children in developing countries (41% of the total for this age group) are associated with malnutrition. The comparability of studies, methods used to derive pooled values, potentially confounding factors that may influence risk estimates, and the validity of the results are discussed. Child survival programmes should assign greater priority to the control of childhood malnutrition.