Effect on breast cancer mortality of biennial mammographic screening of women under age 50.

The effects on breast cancer mortality seen after 16 years of biennial screening of younger women are assessed in this prospective cohort study. Since 1975 some 13,500 women, aged 35-49 in 1975, were invited to participate in the Nijmegen screening programme comprising a mammographic examination every 2 years. By the end of 1990, 75 women had died of breast cancer out of the 332 cases diagnosed after the start of the screening project. Women from the same birth cohort, living in Arnhem, a neighbouring city with a comparable population and without a screening project, were used as controls. In this city, 74 breast cancer deaths out of 284 cases occurred during the same period. In Nijmegen, after 16 years of follow-up, breast cancer mortality showed a non-significant reduction of 6% (95% confidence interval: 32% reduction, 29% excess). In the relevant period, after a time lag of 10 years from the start of the programme, this reduction rose to 20% (95% confidence interval: 48% reduction, 23% excess). No reduction in breast cancer mortality was observed in the first decade of screening. For a later period, a shift towards a reduction emerges, but the data are as yet inconclusive.