Reflections on the cost consequences of the new gene technology for health policy.

This article presents a preliminary and necessarily tentative and subjective assessment of the impact of new gene technology on health care costs. In the short term, diagnosis and treatment of genetic disease are likely to increase costs. Treatment with nongene therapy will continue to be far less expensive than gene therapy where it is available. Research developments to monitor as indicators of forthcoming cost reductions in genetic therapy are set forth. Some forms of genetic screening may soon reduce health care costs, and an example is provided. Genetically engineered pharmaceuticals are described and their impact on costs reviewed. Conditions under which they are likely to reduce health care costs are indicated.