Conception rates. 1. Derivation and estimates for effects of estrus detection on cow profitability.

Objectives were to derive equations and obtain estimates per cow of days to conception, milk production, semen purchases, calvings, and reproductive failures based on the probability of estrus detection and AI conception. The net benefits of changing rates of estrus detection, including changes in milk production, semen purchases, and replacement inventories (culled cows and calves) were converted to annual values and multiplied by fixed prices to obtain estimates of the annual financial benefit of a change in rates of estrus detection. Improvement in milk production because of a 1-d decrease in DIM at conception was dependent on DIM, peak milk production, and monthly rate of decline in daily milk production. Variation was considerable in expected benefits of improved estrus detection. Under the assumption that replacement was not planned prior to breeding (in which case improved estrus detection would have no value), estimated financial benefits for increasing the probability of estrus detection from 60 to 70% with a 70% AI conception rate were $6/yr; increasing from 20 to 30% the rate of estrus detection with a 50% AI conception rate increased estimated annual benefits to $83. This wide range of values occurred with fixed costs and prices so that fluctuating prices would introduce further variation in financial benefits. Derived equations allow point estimates of expected benefits with input values estimated.