A prognostic model of recurrence and death in stage I non-small cell lung cancer utilizing presentation, histopathology, and oncoprotein expression.

In order to construct a multivariate model for predicting early recurrence and cancer death for patients with stage I non-small cell lung cancer, 271 consecutive patients (mean age, 63 +/- 8 years) who were diagnosed, treated, and followed at one institution were studied. All patients were clinical stage I with head and chest/abdominal computed tomograms and radionuclide bone scans without evidence of metastatic disease. Pathological material after resection was reviewed to verify histological staging. Follow-up documented the time and location of any recurrence, was a median 56 months in duration, and was complete in all cases. Data recorded included age, sex, smoking history, presenting symptoms, pathological description, and oncoprotein staining for erbB-2 (HER-2/neu), p53, and KI-67 proliferation protein. Immunohistochemistry of oncogene expression was performed on two separate archived paraffin tumor blocks for each patient, with normal lung as control. All analyses were blinded and included Kaplan-Meier survival estimates with Cox proportional hazards regression modeling. Data, including immunohistochemistry, were complete for all 271 patients. Actual 5-year survival was 63% and actuarial 10-year survival was 58%. Significant univariate predictors (P < 0.05) of early recurrence and cancer-death were: male sex; the presence of symptoms; chest pain; type of cough; hemoptysis; tumor size > 3 cm diameter (T2); poor differentiation; vascular invasion; erbB-2 expression; p53 expression; and a higher KI-67 proliferation index (> 5%). An additive oncogene expression curve demonstrated a 5-year survival of 72% for 136 patients without p53 or erbB-2, 58% for 108 patients who expressed either oncogene, and 38% for 27 who expressed both (P < 0.001).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)