Monte Carlo likelihood in the genetic mapping of complex traits.

Many of the likelihoods arising in the analysis of complex genetic traits, particularly in linkage analysis, are computationally infeasible. Where exact likelihoods cannot be computed, Monte Carlo estimates of likelihoods may provide a satisfactory alternative. Although simulation on pedigrees is straightforward, simulation conditional upon observed phenotypic data is not. However, recent advances in Markov chain Monte Carlo methods have provided a method well suited to this problem. From realizations of underlying genes, simulated under a genetic model, conditional upon observed data, a Monte Carlo estimate of this likelihood surface can be formed. Various sampler and model modifications are needed to enhance the statistical efficiency of the Monte Carlo estimator; as these methods become increasingly developed, this approach becomes a useful tool in resolving the genes contributing to the phenotypes associated with genetically complex diseases.